Revising our 2024 inflation outlook: Moving back to a 2% target
We expect the Fed to begin cutting rates in June, and that the central bank will reduce its policy rate four times this year, by 25 basis points each.
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The logic of a Fed policy pause and then rate cuts in 2024
After nearly two years of raising the federal funds rate to restore price stability, the Federal Reserve has all but declared an end to that campaign.
Fed signals end of rate hikes and projects cuts in 2024
The Federal Reserve signaled at its recent meeting that it is done raising its policy rate and is poised to reduce it by 75 basis points next year to support the expanding economy.
Amid banking disruption, everyone wants a piece of lending
Amid banking disruption, private credit could play a significant role in lending.
California wildfires and Atlantic hurricanes: Insurers grapple with rising risk
As severe weather affects insurance companies, preventive measures and catastrophe modeling are key.
U.S. charitable donations fell last year
Donations to charity fell to $499 billion last year, a 3.4% decrease from 2021.
After flush years, households show a reluctance to borrow
As flush households face the potential of an economic slowdown, they are reluctant to take on debt. Instead, households appear to prefer precautionary saving in contrast with overconsumption.
Fed hikes rates by 25 basis points as it approaches peak
The central bank hiked its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range between 4.5% and 4.75%, its eighth straight increase, though lower than the recent hikes.
U.S. inflation eases in December, supporting a moderation in Fed rate hikes
Top-line inflation declined by 0.1% on the month in December and increased by 6.5% on an annual basis.
FOMC preview: Policy rate to increase by 50 basis points
Such an increase would follow a series of 75 basis-point increases and would lift the Fed’s policy rate to a range between 4.25% and 4.5%.
Job openings and quits continue to moderate
There remained 1.7 job vacancies per unemployed worker, significantly higher than 2019's average of 1.2.
U.S. October CPI: Inflation still high, but relief on the horizon
inflation is most likely approaching an inflection point where the central bank can begin considering a pause in its efforts to restore price stability.
Fed raises its policy rate by 75 basis points as it prepares to slow pace of hikes
The Federal Reserve increased its policy rate by 75 basis points on Wednesday to a range between 3.75% and 4% as it hinted at slowing the pace of its hikes.
Producer prices rebound, keeping pressure on Fed to raise rates
The producer price index rose by 0.4% in September after falling for two straight months, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Wednesday.
Amid global economic turmoil, stress grips fixed-income markets
Fixed-income markets are signaling a shift in perceptions of financial stability and raising a caution flag for investors.
FOMC policy decision: Fed hikes policy rate by 75 basis points
At this critical juncture, with the policy rate residing in neutral terrain, it is natural for the Fed to adjust its rhetoric as it considers next steps.