We expect the Fed to begin cutting rates in June, and that the central bank will reduce its policy rate four times this year, by 25 basis points each.
The Federal Reserve signaled at its recent meeting that it is done raising its policy rate and is poised to reduce it by 75 basis points next year to support the expanding economy.
As flush households face the potential of an economic slowdown, they are reluctant to take on debt. Instead, households appear to prefer precautionary saving in contrast with overconsumption.
The central bank hiked its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range between 4.5% and 4.75%, its eighth straight increase, though lower than the recent hikes.
Top-line inflation declined by 0.1% on the month in December and increased by 6.5% on an annual basis.
Such an increase would follow a series of 75 basis-point increases and would lift the Fed’s policy rate to a range between 4.25% and 4.5%.
There remained 1.7 job vacancies per unemployed worker, significantly higher than 2019's average of 1.2.
inflation is most likely approaching an inflection point where the central bank can begin considering a pause in its efforts to restore price stability.
The Federal Reserve increased its policy rate by 75 basis points on Wednesday to a range between 3.75% and 4% as it hinted at slowing the pace of its hikes.
The producer price index rose by 0.4% in September after falling for two straight months, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Wednesday.
Fixed-income markets are signaling a shift in perceptions of financial stability and raising a caution flag for investors.
At this critical juncture, with the policy rate residing in neutral terrain, it is natural for the Fed to adjust its rhetoric as it considers next steps.
The top-line consumer price index hit 9.1% in June on the back of a 11.2% increase in gasoline prices and a 7.5% jump in overall energy prices.
Job openings declined for the second straight month in May as the Federal Reserve's rate hikes slowed down overall demand.
The Federal Reserve lifted its federal funds policy rate to a range between 1.5% and 1.75% on Wednesday as it moves to restore price stability over the medium term.
Inflation continued to broaden out across the American economy in May, rising by 8.6% annually and underscoring the urgency among central bankers to restore price stability through an increase in the federal funds rate and a drawdown in its $8.9 trillion balance sheet.